weezer2080

I'm a girl, not a band!!!
2003-09-12 22:12:58 (UTC)

Hurricane Advisory

I went to Palm Beach today for a boat test. Similar to
testing a car, but with a boat. Well, everyone there seems
very worried about this:

HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2003

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CONFIRM
THAT ISABEL
IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS
LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST OR ABOUT
350
MILES...565 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

REPORT FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160
MPH...260
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY
FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY
DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140
KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO
RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.8 N... 58.6 W.
MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Yup. The very large hurricane heading in my direction. Let
me put this in perspective for you: Category 5 is as high
as you can go. The winds are clocked at 155 mph and above.
Remember Hurricane Andrew? The storm that decimated Miami
in 1992? Go look if you don't remember. Google it or
something and see the devastation of Homestead. My point
is that Andrew was only a category 4 storm with winds of
131-155 mph. Yeah, so this one is bigger.

The problem is that forecasting is still very difficult to
do. Yes there's science and approximation, but it's still
a crap shoot in a lot of ways. This thing could turn and
go up the Atlantic seaboard, who knows? But Florida hasn't
been hit by a hurricane in awhile and considering its
location something is going to happen sometime. Who's to
say it won't be soon?


~L